10 Stats that will Increase this year
We are pretty close to being done with all of the "big news" that surrounds the NFL until we hear about yet another Baltimore Ravens injury or Jeremy Maclin signs with a new team. So now that most everything is set in stone, it's time to take a look at what will increase this year.
This does not necessarily mean good things that increase like touchdowns or total yards per game. This can also be turnovers or yards allowed. Just so there is no bias, I am picking the one thing for each team that will increase more than anything else and ranking how important that will be during the season.
For example, the amount of touchdowns a quarterback will throw increasing by one will not beat something like a running back having 300 more total yards.
Honorable Mention - Bills: Number of Stops by Front-Seven
10. Philadelphia Eagles: Sack Total 2016 Total: 34 Sacks
You thought I was going to say Carson Wentz's passing yards, didn't you? I know: that is a high number to beat. But this is tied for 16th in the league. The Eagles did lose Bennie Logan and Connor Barwin in free agency. What they picked up was much better. Philadelphia added, the now Super Bowl champion, defensive end Chris Long. The 32-year old veteran brings leadership to a line that has not seen it in awhile. Pairing Long with rookie defensive lineman Derek Barnett will be scary for opponent's offensive line.
Barnett was the 14th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft by way of Tennessee. While playing, Barnett broke the sack total record for the school, set by NFL Hall of Famer Reggie White. Keep an eye on a defense primed to take out opposing quarterbacks.
I see the Eagles going 40+ on total sacks this year.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles' Offensive Touchdowns
2016 Total: 23 TDs
Bortles has been quite a thorn is the side of many Jaguars fans. He doesn't manage the game and throws too many interceptions. As of right now, Bortles has thrown more Pick-Sixes than he has wins. I do not know if that will change, but his offensive numbers should go up.
The Jaguars made four excellent pick-ups to help Bortles this year, the first one being fourth-overall pick Leonard Fournette. The former Tiger may be the most complete running back since Adrian Peterson. The hope is that Fournette will finally give the Jaguars a running game; something they have lacked since Maurice Jones-Drew left.
The also gave him more protection on the line by drafting Alabama offensive lineman Cam Robinson and trading for former Miami lineman Brandon Albert. This not only helps Fournette, but Bortles will now have more time in the pocket to make an accurate throw.
Adding Dede Westbrook to the receiving core is just the icing on the cake.
Bortles could easily eclipse 28 touchdowns this season. And if not, it's time for the Jags to look elsewhere for their future.
8. Minnesota Vikings: Receiving Touchdowns
2016 Total: 22 TDs
Not one wide receiver had over 5 touchdowns last year. This could be blamed by the talent in Minnesota, but it's more because of the injuries on the offensive line. With a healthy line back, Sam Bradford should have more time in the pocket. The current leader for touchdowns is tight end Kyle Rudolph with seven. This is banking on the performance of two people: Laquon Treadwell and Dalvin Cook.
Treadwell was believed to be the top receiver in the 2016 NFL Draft, but was the fourth receiver selected. After a season where Treadwell caught one pass for 15 yards, this will be a dire time for him to play well.
As for Cook, the second-round pick was a heck of a threat in the rushing and passing game for Florida State. With the newly acquired Latavius Murray likely taking the majority of the hand-offs, Cook could be used as a threat on third-down in the passing game. When Cook hits open space, there is rarely anyone that can stop him from reaching the end zone.
Bradford, as long as he plays the whole year, could have his best season ever in terms of touchdowns. His career his is 21 in 2012 with the Rams. I predict at least 25 this year.
7. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton's Completion Percentage
2016 Percentage: 52.9%
How does the league's MVP follow up his first Super Bowl appearance? By putting up some of the worst statistics of his career. The only reason they are not all worse is because in 2014, Newton missed two games, causing some stats to be lower, but not by much.
Newton will have to deal with the news that fourth-year receiver Kelvin Benjamin showed up to camp drastically overweight. But the additions of Curtis Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and Matt Kalil will surely help.
The Panthers have needed offensive line help for awhile. Matt Kalil is one of the best offensive tackles of today and will be with his brother, Ryan, this season. Samuel and McCaffrey offer two fast weapons that can be used at running back and receiver at a moment's notice. Making easier for the team to adapt to any defense.
Look for Newton to throw around 60% for the third time in his career.
6. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff's Touchdowns
2016 Total: 14 TDs
Honestly, there's nowhere to go but up from here. The Rams have been dead last in touchdowns scored the past two seasons. Hopefully for them, this is going to change. They added three new weapons through the draft and all will likely start.
South Alabama tight end Gerald Everett and Eastern Washington receiver Cooper Kupp will likely start day one. But I would keep an eye on fourth-round pick Josh Reynolds out of Texas A&M. Reynolds is 6' 2" but takes long strides and has good ball carrier vision, able to see the holes in the defense he can use to extend his yards.
With most of the roster filled with receiver scrubs, I see all three of these players getting a lot of playtime. I also expect Goff to have more than 5 touchdowns.
5. Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott's Interceptions
2016 Total: 4 INTs
A rookie throwing just four interceptions?! This is one of the most impressive statistics of the 2016 season. But now it is time for Prescott to come back to earth. After a stellar first season, leading the Cowboys to a 13-3 record, Prescott will likely take a step back. For one, the entire right side of his line is gone. Doug Free retired and Ronald Leary left for the Denver Broncos. The spots will likely be filled by La'el Collins and Jonathan Cooper.
Prescott was pretty cautious during this past season, checking down many routes to Cole Beasley and Jason Witten. He will be more likely to take chances this year down the field with Dez Bryant. While his touchdowns may increase, I do see his interceptions increase along side them.
I expect Prescott to throw close to 10 interceptions this year.
4. Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota's Passing Yards
2016 Total: 3426 yards
For the first time in his career, Marcus Mariota will have a receiver to use on every down. The Titans really shared the wealth last year when it came to the receiving game, throwing touchdowns to even an offensive lineman. Fifth-overall pick Corey Davis was the first receiver taken in the 2017 NFL Draft and he was a godsend for Western Michigan. The also added Taywan Taylor from Western Kentucky to give Mariota some true depth at the position.
This will hopefully bring Mariota to the 4,000-yard mark for the first time.
3. Houston Texans: DeAndre Hopkins' Receiving Yards
2016 Total: 954 yards
Hopkins will return to the stats he put up in 2015 where he had 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns. This will be because of quarterback consistency. Let's just say it right now, Tom Savage will not win the job outright. The Texans traded their first-round pick in 2018 and some change to grab DeShaun Watson 12th overall.
I see the two Clemson products working harmoniously together and bring the Texans back to the playoffs. The only difference is that this time, they will have a fighting chance.
2. Los Angeles Chargers: Melvin Gordon's Rushing Yards
2016 Total: 997 yards
No one will benefit more from the Chargers' off-season than Melvin Gordon. Not because of first-round pick Mike Williams or because Philip Rivers is aging, but because of their second and third-round picks.
After the Chargers released King Dunlap, they needed new linemen. But the Chargers needed new blood before that. The additions of Forrest Lamp and Dan Feeney will pay dividends for Gordon who will likely increase the amount of touches he gets and touchdowns along with his yards.
By the way, I will never forgive the Chargers for moving out of San Diego the year the get a guy named Lamp. #ilovelamp
I can see Gordon getting 1,200 yards this season, at least.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston's Touchdowns
2016 Total: 28 TDs
Finally, no one had a better off-season than the Bucs. The Herd's Colin Cowherd even said they had the best draft, say that "every player they drafted probably should have been or could have been off the board by the time they got the player." They also made two huge pick-ups in free agency, nabbing defensive tackle Chris Baker and receiver DeSean Jackson.
Jackson and first-round pick O.J. Howard are added to the core of Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Cameron Brate. Winston has five legitimate receivers to throw to that look very much like his 2013 National Championship team. I should also mention another rookie, Chris Godwin from Penn State. The receiver had over 187 yards and two touchdowns against Adoree' Jackson and the USC Trojans.
Winston should be expected to have over 30 touchdowns this season.
