Should QB Needy Teams Take Prospect in the First Round?
The NFL Draft is right around the corner and people are still speculating about which quarterback teams should take and where they should be taken. The top of the board seems to be in alignment with insiders and fans agreeing that North Carolina's Mitchell Trubisky and Clemson's DeShaun Watson are the two best quarterbacks.
But being the best at your position does not necessarily mean getting drafted inside the top 10. Over the past three drafts the top rated defensive tackle and safety have not been picked in the top ten due to other talent being available. In this draft, some speculate that no quarterback is worth a first round pick. So it comes down to this: Are they worth a pick from one of the quarterback needy teams.
The Teams
First, we need to look at teams who are in need of a quarterback. As always, the Cleveland Browns find themselves without a signal caller they can be confident in. With the first and twelfth pick in the draft, the Browns could pull the trigger and pick a guy they like. With only Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan on the roster, they are in need of some talent at the position.
Moving forward, the San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets are also possibilities for quarterback picks in the top ten. Both teams lost their true starters this year with very little talent on the bench. The Niners could surprise everyone and take Watson or Trubisky with the second pick. They only have Blaine Gabbert and Brian Hoyer available on the roster as of today. The Jets could pass considering they have taken a quarterback in each of the last two drafts. New York took Baylor's Bryce Petty in 2015 and Penn State's Christian Hackenberg in 2016. Petty played in six games this year (Started four) and threw for three scores and seven interceptions. Maybe it is time to give Hackenberg a shot and not waste the number six pick.
From there, most teams are looking for a successor to the current signal caller. The Giants, Chargers, Steelers, Chiefs, Saints, and Cardinals are all options for a team that feels like they could make a run this year, but want to prepare for the future.
The only team beyond the top ten looking for a possible starter are the Houston Texans. They shipped Brock Osweiler off to Cleveland, where he will presumably be dropped or traded, and are left with Tom Savage and Brandon Weeden. Houston was in the running for Tony Romo before he officially retired from the sport. With the Texans sitting at 25 in the first round, and with a well-rounded team, top-to-bottom, they are my pick for taking one of these quarterbacks by trading up into the early 20's to get ahead of New York.
The Free Agents
These ten teams could draft someone in the first round, but what about the people that are still available?
There are only two free agent quarterbacks that have multiple years of starting experience that are options for the four teams that need a starter right now. Those two guys are Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick.
Cutler played well when he had a team around him like Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey back in 2014, but a lackluster defense cost them multiple games. There is also the fact that Jay Cutler on the sidelines is not a leader and looks like the most disinterested person at the game. The 16-year-old girl who missed the One Direction concert to sit with her dad at the game is more interested in what is going on than Cutler. I do not see Cutler being picked up before the draft begins.
As for Kaepernick, many people believe he is no longer starting material. This accompanied by Kaepernick's public stance on police brutality by kneeling during the National Anthem is not marketable for another opportunity. Analyst Trent Dilfer said the job of the back-up quarterback, which Kaepernick was at the beginning of the season, is "to be quiet and sit in the shadows and get the starter ready to play Week One." While it is his right to speak out, he has to deal with the consequence of people not wanting him on their team because they consider his actions a distraction.
The Top Prospects
After all of that, we get to the prospects. While most insiders and analysts agree that Trubisky and Watson are the top two, there is a steep drop off for the next few guys. Even then, some draft analysts have more than the top two going. The other two options that have been seen are Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer and Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes.
In my research, there has been one, large group thought for this class of quarterbacks: No one is ready to take over a franchise, Watson will have the most initial success, and Trubisky will be the best quarterback from this class.
I agree with all of these. If you go back to my mock draft, I have Watson as the first quarterback off of the board at 12 with the Browns. His running ability, paired with a new offensive line in Cleveland will help get the Browns to a competitive state in the NFL.
I also have Trubisky going to the Texans. This is because Houston needs a game manager at the helm. They need an Alex Smith or an Andy Dalton. Not someone who they rely on to win the game, just someone who is not going to make the mistake that costs them the game. Trubisky can learn the system and he does not have to make this team win on his own.
The most NFL ready quarterback in my opinion is not even on this list of top prospects.
I firmly believe that Chad Kelly from Ole Miss will be the best option come time for a redraft in 2024. He has played against the highest level of competition in the SEC. He has beaten Alabama in Tuscaloosa. He is an excellent passer with receivers that are decent, at best. I honestly believe if the Cardinals want to get ready for the departure of Carson Palmer, they need to draft Kelly.
Final Result: Should any team draft a quarterback in the first round?
Yes, but for the right price. If the Browns are going to take someone in the first round, they need to wait until their 12th pick to do so. The Texans should only draft Trubisky IF AND ONLY IF he is still available come pick 20. All other teams should consider who is available before considering a quarterback. Most of these teams looking for a successor are in desperate need of defensive help. With this talented of a class on that side of the ball, I believe it is too good to pass up if you're in the top half of the draft.
