Is 15-1 Reality or Fantasy?

The Cowboys have clearly been one of the surprise teams this year. After losing their first game due to a selfish play by Dallas wide receiver Terrance Williams to division rival New York, the Cowboys are on an 11 game win streak.

After quarterback Tony Romo went down with an injury in week two of the preseason to the Seahawks, it seemed as though all was lost for Cowboys fans. Then the world met the dynamic duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.

Together, the two rookies have taken the NFL by storm and are battling each other for the Rookie of the Year award and possibly the MVP.

The Cowboys have four games left and are the hottest team today. So here is the question: can they go 15-1?

My money is on no, but let's look at the schedule.

Week 14: @ New York Giants

Week 15: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 16: Detroit Lions

Week 17: @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Cowboys will be facing three defenses from the top half of the league (NYG, DET, & PHI). This doesn't look like a problem for Prescott and Company. Dallas has already played six of the top defenses and gone 5-1 averaging 25.5 points in each of those games. Considering the league's average win totals to 28 points, the Cowboys are doing well against the better defenses (ranked 5th).

The defense is the problem for the Cowboys, just like it has been for the past few seasons. Dallas does not have a dominate pass-rush and they are 31st in passing defense. Dallas does have the 5th ranked rushing defense, but that is because it is incredibly easy to pass on them. As a team, the Eagles are ranked 8th in rushing, followed by a 16th Bucs, 30th Lions, and 31st Giants. As for these team's passing attacks, they are ranked 14th and below.

The Cowboys average allowing 279 passing yards per game. Each of these teams is well below the mark for what they pass for in a game.

Outside of stats, you need to look at one-on-one match ups. The Cowboys will be faced with Odell Beckham Jr and Mike Evans in back-to-back weeks. These receivers are ones that will make you pay with either their speed or their physical play. The Cowboys' corners will have a hard time matching up on these big bodied receivers. The return of Morris Claiborne is still up in the air, but we will likely not see him for either of these games. This would leave either Brandon Carr or rookie Anthony Brown to cover two of the most dominate receivers today.

Personally, I do not like the match-up, but it is what the Cowboys have in front of them. As for the Lions and Eagles, their passing attack is not threatening, but can decide the game. Lions receivers Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are solid playmakers in the the right situations. The Eagles do not have a true top target, so it is hard to key in on one guy.

These games will heavily rely on the defense and the emergence of playmakers. Brown is becoming a decent corner and could start next year if they cut Brandon Carr or not resign Morris Claiborne. Rookie Defensive Tackle Malik Collins is getting better with every game. Ultimately it will rely on the linebackers. Sean Lee needs to stay healthy and Anthony Hitchens needs to play like he did against the Vikings. He even had a pick before it was called back for holding on the Cowboys.

Optimistically, the Dallas Cowboys could go 15-1. They have the offense to outscore almost everyone. If the defense can make their way up from being poor to even just mediocre, they could go 4-0 down the stretch, locking up the first seed in the NFC.

Realistically, I think the Cowboys will go 2-2. The Cowboys will lose to the Giants due to the weather and Beckham Jr having a big day. I also believe they will lose either the Bucs or Lions game. It will depend on which Bucs defense shows up. The one that held Seattle to five points? Or the one that gave up 40 points to Arizona.